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Projecting Mahomes’ Greatness

Mahomes has taken the NFL by storm. In his first year starting, he dominated the league with one of the greatest statistical seasons of all-time while earning the league MVP award. In his second year, he started off torching the Jaguars. He went 8/9 for 211 yards and 2 touchdowns with 2:36 remaining in the first quarter. Then Mahomes lost his most potent weapon, Tyreek Hill, for over a month. Shortly after, Mahomes suffered a significant ankle sprain which prevented him from stepping into throws properly for the next several weeks. When it finally appeared that the Chiefs QB was nearing full health, he reinjured his ankle (thanks Cam Erving), and not long after would suffer a dislocated knee against the Denver Broncos that sidelined him several games.

In spite of these missed games and setbacks, Mahomes was able to firmly plant himself among the top ten QBs in virtually every meaningful category including passing yards, touchdowns, and overall QB rating. This was all a prelude to his magical playoff run where the 25 year-old phenom reminded the world what he was capable of at full health. In three post-season games, Mahomes shredded the best teams the NFL had to offer with 901 passing yards, 135 rushing yards, 10 passing touchdowns and 2 rushing touchdowns while securing a SuperBowl title and SuperBowl MVP.

Mahomes has shown the world that 2018 was no fluke. In fact, Mahomes’ extraordinary 2019 postseason may reveal that the 2018 regular season could be far more his norm than the 2019, injury-plagued regular season. What if the 2019 regular season where he threw for over 4,000 yards and 26 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions is his statistical floor? It is mind-boggling to think about! How would Mahomes stack-up against the greatest quarterbacks of all time if we used his first two years starting as the baseline for his statistics moving forward? Here is a sneak peak.

Currently, Drew Brees is the leader in career passing yards (77, 416) after 19 years playing in the NFL. At his current rate, Mahomes would have 81,929 yards after year 15. Drew Brees also holds the career passing touchdowns record at 547. At this pace, Mahomes will have nearly 580 touchdowns after only 13 years starting. Tom Brady, rightly known as the G.O.A.T., currently has a bewildering 219 wins over a 20-year career. Mahomes could have 225 wins after 16 years as a starting QB at his present rate. Perhaps what is most remarkable is that Mahomes is doing all this while having a mere 1.6% interception rate compared to Brees’ 2.3% and Brady’s 1.8%.

Mahomes is on the fast-track to mind-boggling numbers. Chiefs fans are living in a dream-world. And the best news is, he has accomplished all of this in his first two years as a starter. For reference, Mahomes threw for more touchdowns in his first year starting than Brady and Brees threw in their first two combined. Also, Mahomes had a far better year in his 2019, injury-plagued campaign where he only started 14 games than Brady or Brees mustered in any of their first four years starting. It wasn’t until their fifth year in the league that these future Hall-of-Famers starting putting up stellar numbers that are remotely comparable to what Mahomes is currently doing. The NFL must be absolutely terrified. If Mahomes is capable of putting up these types of numbers at the outset of his career while struggling with multiple injuries, heaven help them once he becomes a savvy vet. Enjoy the ride, Chiefs fans. It looks to be a good one.

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