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Mac’s Machinations: Week 5 NFL Picks

Last week I finished 7-7-1 ATS and 9-6 SU. Most importantly, ladies and gentleman, I’ve discovered THE way to make money this season: Overs. The league is on pace for shattering all sorts of records of points scored and total offensive yardage. Whether its due to a lack of talent on the defensive end, abundance of talent on the offensive end, or the lack of fans, points are being scored in bunches. Going forward, until data suggests otherwise, I’m going to be focused on teasing O/Us as the prime way to make a profit. I will still, however, provide my excellent analysis and invaluable game picks. So you’re welcome.

Thursday, October 8 8:20 pm ET

Tampa Bay Bucs at Chicago Bears Line: Bucs -5.5 O/U: 44

Tampa looked like they were going to get blown out at home by the Chargers but ol’ Tommy rallied back with 5 TD’s. The Bears, meanwhile, lost to a sneaky good Colts team. The Bears rank 8th in total defense while the Bucs rank 10th. You would think that suggests a low scoring affair. You need to look at opponents played, however. The Bears have wins over the Lions, Falcons, and the Giants. Not exactly a minefield. The Bucs have wins over the Chargers, a gritty Carolina team, and the Broncos. They should have beat the Saints as well if not for turnovers. A short week for Tom might be a concern, however. I think this could go either way. Add this to a 6 point O/U teaser and get the O/U down to 38 and roll.

Tampa Bay 28, Chicago 21

Sunday, October 11, 1pm ET Games

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons Line: Falcons -2.5 O/U: 53.5

Atlanta might be the best 0-4 team in recent memory. They should at worst be 2-2 and possibly 3-1. The Panthers meanwhile find themselves in the tricky spot of rebuilding but also contending. They are playing better than expected and have bought in to Matt Rhule. Teddy Bridgewater is playing good football. That being said, I think this is the game that Atlanta finally wins in this battle of the Nascar Division. Expect a close, ATL win.

Atlanta 27, Carolina 23

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs Line: Chiefs -13.5 O/U: 56.5

The Patriots, under the genius of Bill Belichick, shut down the Chiefs offense for 3 quarters. In fact, if not for the numerous snafus, the Patriots probably win that game. The KC offense looked out of sorts. The good news is that they play the Raiders, who haven’t stopped anyone all year. The Chiefs will light up a Raiders secondary that ranks 20th in passing yards allowed. Derek Carr is also good for at least one turnover. KC will be playing their 2nd game in 11 days so there is a concern that if they get up big early, they may play conservative to avoid more wear and tear. Either way the Chiefs will cover.

Kansas City 35, Las Vegas 17

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots Line: Pats -8.5 O/U: 48.5

This line may change as we learn who will be the starter for the Patriots. Either way, go with the coaching matchup. Belichick could beat Vic Fangio with his headset turned off and a copy of the Waffle House menu as his play sheet. However, this is one game I expect the under to cover.

New England 24, Denver 10

L.A. Rams at Washington Footballers Line: Rams -7.5 O/U: 45

The sooner the Fighting Footballers out of Washington go to Alex Smith the better off they will be. This Pop Warner of a division that is the NFC East is totally up for grabs. Alex Smith will not go crazy but he also won’t make Dwayne Haskins level mistakes. Haskins is telegraphing his passes so much that Marconi would be proud. Alex Smith will not lose you games. Haskins has and will. The Rams find themselves on the east coast with an early kickoff yet again. The last time this happened they sleepwalked the first half against Buffalo but came storming back in the 2nd half to almost win the game. I’m thinking it won’t matter either way if Haskins is still QB for WF. Rams big.

LA Rams 35, Washington 20

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans Line: Houston -6 O/U: 54.5

The sad news is that Bill O’Brien is gone. We now cannot bet against him. However there is GREAT news. Romeo Crennel is interim head coach. The only thing better than betting against Bill O’Brien is betting against Romeo Crennel. This man has made me so much money over the years. He always looks baffled on the sideline and every time I see him I start singing the “Five Dollar….Five Dollar Footlong…” song. This man is walking disaster as a head coach. This would be a slam dunk if they weren’t playing the Jags. The Jags have been a bipolar train wreck so far. I think Houston will win just to spite O’Brien. Next week we can start betting against 5 dollar footlong Crennel.

Quick Hits

Buffalo at Coronaville Titans: Should be forfeited. How screwed is KC getting by having to play 3 games in 10 days and now Buffalo essentially gets a bye before the potential AFC #1 seed showdown next Thursday? If the game is played I’ll take Buffalo 28, Coronaville Titans 16.

Arizona 24, NY Jets 16: This is the last chance I will give the Cardinals. Unfortunately teams are figuring out that if you make Kyler stay in the pocket, production goes way down.

Pittsburgh 24, Philadelphia 10: Pitt coming off a bye against a Phily team travel back east after tough win.

Baltimore 34, Cincy 17: Baltimore defense dominates a banged up Bengal O-line and forces several Joe Burrow turnovers.

San Francisco 21, Miami 17: Miami keeps it close against a banged up 49er team who is coming off a tough loss. Don’t be surprised if they pull the upset. Take Miami and the points.

Dallas 31, NY Giants 13: Joe Judge may be in way over his head with an almost rookie QB who may still be in over his head. Dallas defense finally catches a break.

Cleveland 31, Indianapolis 27: The Browns are starting to put it all together on offense. Now the defense needs to shore up.

Seattle 38, Minnesota 17: Russell Wilson is going to go bonkers on the Vikings secondary. Book it.

LA Chargers 35, New Orleans 27: Chargers played the Bucs tough but choked. Still not sold on New Orleans who had to rally to beat Detroit.

Lock of the Week: Seattle -7 over Minnesota

Parlay of the Week: Seattle, Cleveland

Upset of the week: Chargers +7.5 over Saints

Teaser of the week: Pick 6 games you feel have a good chance of going over on their own and put them in a 6 pt teaser on the OVER.

Overall Record: ATS: 22-26 SU: 29-18-1

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