Big Game Hunting: The Art of Finding the Perfect NFL Trade in 2022 (and analyzing the Chiefs Trade for Toney)

The NFL Trade Deadline is on Tuesday, the Chiefs have already made a trade by trading for the Giants’ Kadarius Toney, was it a good value, or was it a reach for Brett Veach?

Finding the perfect NFL trade is nearly impossible, every team is acting in its own best interest. Rebuilding teams are trying to get the most for their stars, contending teams are trying to add extra firepower to make it all the way, and the Jags are… well… the Jags. This season, the Chiefs are in the second category. Edge, Wide Receiver, and Offensive Tackle are all places the Chiefs could look to make a move, so this article will focus on what makes a good trade.

Value is the main focus.

Christian’s Trade Theorem

An introduction to the subject of NFL trade revolves around 1 main principle… you can only have 2 positives when trading for a player (unless you’re doing business with Bill O’Brien). For example, if your target player has a low cap hit & doesn’t cost a lot of high-value picks, he’s not a superstar talent. Again, if he’s a superstar player & has a low cap hit, he’s going to cost a lot of draft capital. Finally, if he’s a superstar talent & has a low trade cost, he’s probably aging and has a high cap number.

The purpose of Christian’s Trade Theorem (graphic above) is to give you an illustration of what every NFL GM has to try and combat when dealing for a player. Brett Veach, however, is a master at putting this theorem into practice.

Veach’s Ability to Exploit Value

Firstly, it’s important to quantify the value of previous trades in order to create a baseline to measure the quality of future trades made. Using the draft trade value chart created by Brad Spielberger & Jason Fitzgerald, as well as factoring in the age of the player traded, I have compiled a few different players to compare against the Toney trade, as well as a few other positions the Chiefs could trade for before the deadline. Here are those findings:

Wide Receiver

Chiefs trade away Tyreek Hill (27) to gain 3,792 points worth of draft capital

Packers trade away Davante Adams (29) to gain 2,422 points worth of draft capital

Ravens trade away Marquise Brown (24) & a 3rd round pick (666 pts) to gain 1,411 points worth of draft capital (745 points total)

Falcons trade away Julio Jones (31) & 6th round pick (370) to gain 1,532 points (1,162 points total)

Titans trade away A.J. Brown (24) to gain 2,196 points worth of draft capital

Giants trade away Kadarius Toney (23) to gain 1,110 points worth of draft capital


Bears trade away Khalil Mack (30) to gain 1,406 points worth of draft capital

Broncos trade away Von Miller (32) to gain 1,579 points worth of draft capital

Bears trade away Robert Quinn (32) to gain 609 points worth of draft capital

Vikings trade away Yannick Ngakoue (25) to gain 1,161 points worth of capital

Seahawks trade away Frank Clark (25) & a 3rd round pick to gain 2,895 points worth of capital (2,140 points total)

Analysis of the Toney Trade

Keep in mind this analysis is only based on the current/projected value of Toney based on these metrics.

Per the above metrics, the Chiefs gave away about as much draft capital as it took the Buccaneers to get an aging Julio Jones or a little bit more than it took for the Cardinals to get Marquese Brown. This is a relatively low-cost move for the Chiefs and a spectacular move by the Chiefs by these metrics. Age & upside for a former first-round player only having played 1 full season in his career translates into incredible value at the end. Plain and simple:

Brett Veach made an analytically sound move no matter what happens with Toney!

Future Moves

It’s no secret that the Chiefs are still in dire need of defensive line help. Given that Veach has the go-ahead to spend significant draft capital on an edge play in a draft featured in KC, here are some trade propositions that would be in line with the current market.

Josh Allen to KC for 2,000 points worth of draft capital (late 1st round pick & late 3rd round pick)

Montez Sweat to KC for 1,200 points worth of draft capital (late 2nd & late 7th)

Brian Burns to KC for 1,700 points worth of draft capital (late 2nd & late 3rd)

Marcus Davenport to KC for 900 points worth of draft capital (late 2nd)

J.J. Watt to KC for 550 points worth of draft capital (late 4th)

What Do You Think?

I understand that Veach gets a bad rap for botching some of our picks in the past and making some ill-advised trades for subpar players, but would one of these trades change your opinion of him as a GM? He knocked the Hill trade out of the park, made some incredible picks over the past couple of drafts, and got his man in Kadarius Toney for a third-round pick only a season after he was drafted.

If you leave this article with anything just remember to not take anything for granted. Right now the Chiefs are one of the top two teams in the league with the greatest quarterback to ever play the game at the helm. Whatever happens in the next week, whether they make a move or not, the arsenal of incredible minds we have collaborating on every gameplan ALWAYS gives us a chance to make the Super Bowl!!! Enjoy being the metaphorical “school bully” for the next decade.

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