The future hall of fame head coach has a tough stretch of divisional games ahead but first he must attempt to add to his historical success in games following a bye week.
After two weeks of celebration following a tough, well-earned victory against the NFC powerhouse Cowboys it is finally Broncos week for members of Chiefs Kingdom.
Now, as a famous Jedi once said, is when the fun begins.
The Chiefs play all three divisional rivals over the next three weeks starting with Denver coming into Arrowhead on Sunday night after being flexed into primetime last Tuesday.
Denver has famously not beaten Kansas City since back in mid-November of 2015 thanks to a last-minute fumble by Jamaal Charles which was taken in for a 21-yard scoop and score (below) which would break a 24-24 tie and lead to the Broncos’ seventh consecutive win against the Chiefs.
Since then the Chiefs are 11-0 against Denver, which has vaulted them to a 67-55 record overall against the orange-laced rivals from the mountains.
But this Broncos team coming to Arrowhead is not like the Denver teams of recent years…
After originally starting off the season 3-0 and leading the division at one point the Broncos have cooled off exponentially, losing four straight before squeaking past Washington at Denver and then curb-stomping the Cowboys in AT&T Stadium.
Add in Denver’s 15-point victory over the Chargers last Sunday and suddenly the Broncos look more formidable than Chiefs fans probably predicted they would be at this point in the season.
But the Chiefs still have the momentum swinging in their favor thanks to their four-game win streak, their reclamation of the AFC West lead, and their head coach’s 19-3 record overall after a bye week.
It’s that final stat that always seems to become a common narrative during every NFL season–especially when Reid’s post-bye game has major divisional implications–and this year is no different.
What does Vegas think?
The advantages are overflowing for Kansas City coming into Sunday night’s game. For starters, Reid is currently riding a five-game win streak off of a bye week (incl. playoffs) and is 11-1 at home overall following that extra week of rest and preparation.
These facets of Reid’s history definitely influence Vegas bettors and that has shown when looking at the odds surrounding the first in-season matchup between these two pinnacles of the AFC West.
Reid and Kansas City opened the week as massive favorites (-10.5) but have simmered to around (-9.5) after being flexed from the 1:00 PM timeslot into the 7:25 PM timeslot. If it holds till kickoff that two-score spread would be a smart move for any NFL fans who have been able to see Reid’s mastery after an extra week of practice and watching film.
Not to mention the Chiefs are 9-2 against the spread (ATS) against the Broncos during their current 11-game win streak over Denver.
The over/under (49.5) is also an indication of Reid’s post-bye history considering his Chiefs have averaged 38.3 ppg during their current three-game win streak following a bye week going back to 2018 when they dropped 40 on the Raiders in Oakland.
And while it is obvious that the Chiefs can always put up an insane amount of points quickly it does not mean that the over (49.5+) bet is the way to go, mainly because the over has only hit once out of Kansas City’s past six games (vs. Las Vegas).
Denver has not been any better when it comes to betting the over. In fact, the over has yielded an 0-5 record over the past five weeks even though Denver is 3-2 and has made huge strides toward turning their season back around after losing four straight.
To make things even more complicated for sports bettors Andy Reid is 17-9 against the spread following a bye week as a head coach (incl. playoffs), so if you are betting do so wisely.
Overall, the Chiefs have truly played their best football against the Broncos since 2015 when they got the better of Reid and QB Alex Smith.
Since that loss, the Chiefs have scored more points per game against Denver (29.4) than they have against the Chargers (27.4) or the Raiders (29.1). Also, in the time frame where Kansas City has gone 11-0 against the Broncos, they have gone 10-3 against Los Angeles/San Diego and 11-2 against Las Vegas/Oakland.
Needless to say, the Chiefs are going to have a lot to live up to this Sunday night but after looking at Reid’s history and Kansas City’s recent divisional superiority it is easy to see why the Chiefs are so heavily favored
