Last week was tough. You saw more offensive holds called, offenses slow down a bit, and tackling improve in several games. This led to several under holding form. Meanwhile, the Chiefs loss to the Raiders threw a wrench in a lot of parlay and teaser bets. Covid scheduling has turned not only league play but fantasy football play into a real nightmare. The loss of Dak Prescott will have huge ramifications going forward in the short and long term both for the Cowboys and the league as a whole. It’s messy and its going to get messier. Let’s grin and bear it and try to make some money.
Sunday, October 18, 1 pm ET Games
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers Line: Panthers -2.5 O/U: 44.5
Two teams that can’t decide if they are legit or not. The Panthers should be struggling without CMAC and they aren’t. They should be struggling in a new system with a college head coach and they aren’t. The Bears wisely got rid of MitchTRUB and the ship righted itself. Now what to do here. Bears are in the top ten in total defense while the Panthers are 14th. The Bears are 27th in offense while the Panthers are 6th in offense. What does this mean? The Panthers should win while the Bears will struggle to keep up.
Panthers 31, Bears 18
Detroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars Line: Lions -3.5 O/U: 54.5
What a bowl of crap. Literally play the old chicken chooses a bowl of either Detroit or Jacksonville feed and take the selection. These teams have major issues on both sides of the ball. I’ll choose Stafford making fewer mistakes than Magic Massive Mike “P Star” Minshew. Lots of points will be scored here so trend toward the over.
Detroit 34, Jacksonville 31
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings Line: Vikings – 3.5 O/U: 54.5
The Falcons fired their coach and GM and the Vikings should have beat Seattle of all teams. The obvious conclusion is that the Vikings will roll the Falcons. Not so fast. Matt Ryan can still throw and the Vikings secondary is still young and sucky. Look for the ATL to come out throwing early and often. Atlanta gets a big win as a parting FU to Dan Quinn. Things like this happen more often than not.
Atlanta 38, Minnesota 20
Houston at Tennesse: Line: Titans -3 O/U: 53.5
Tennessee straight beat the shiz out of Buffalo on Tuesday. Maybe this team is starting to put it all together. God help the league when Derek Henry transforms into the Derek Henry of late last season. Dude started slow this year but still had decent numbers. Now is the time for us to start Operation Five Dollar Footlong: bet against Romeo Crennell early and often. You will walk out a winner by the end of the season. Titans big time.
Titans 38, Texans 17
Washington at NY Giants: Line: Giants -2.5 O/U: 43
Giants couldn’t beat an Andy Dalton led Cowboys team but this could be the spot for that elusive first victory. When you have a toss up of epic crapiness like this go with the coach. Riverboat Ron over “I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express” Joe Judge everyday of the week.
Washington 24, NY Giants 17
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: Line: Steelers -3.5, O/U: 51
Browns are morphing into a legit contender. The offense has bought in and the defense is gelling. I like the upset here. ODB is starting to look like the ODB of old. Take the Browns and the points in a shootout.
Cleveland 42, Pittsburgh 31
Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles: Line: Ravens -7.5 O/U: 47.5
I don’t expect the Eagles to score much in this game. The Ravens offense hasn’t exactly been setting the world on fire lately, either. I tend to lean towards the under in this matchup. At the end of the day though, Ravens easily cover the spread.
Ravens 31, Eagles 13
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts Line: Colts: -8 O/U: 46.5
Poor Joe Burrow. He is literally thrown into the snake pit each week. At this rate he won’t finish the season. Guy has a ton of talent but that silk offensive line is doing him no favors. Now he gets the Colts defense. God bless you son. Colts big.
Indianapolis 35, Cincinnati 14
Denver at New England (Postponed from last week) Line: Patriots -9.5 O/U: 46.5
New week, same story.
This line may change as we learn who will be the starter for the Patriots. Either way, go with the coaching matchup. Belichick could beat Vic Fangio with his headset turned off and a copy of the Waffle House menu as his play sheet. However, this is one game I expect the under to cover.
New England 28, Denver 13
Sunday, October 18, 4:25 ET Games
Green Bay at Tampa Bay Line: Green Bay -1.5 O/U: 54.5
Remember the days when these two were in the same division? The NFC Central. Ah, the good old days. Now we have a battle of hall of fame QBs with one, Brady, needing the win more than the other. However, I don’t think even the GOAT can stop the unholy mission evil Aaron Rodgers is on in 2020. The TB defense has serious holes that weren’t supposed to last this long. Rodgers exploits it here.
Packers 35, Buccaneers 21
N.Y. Jets at Miami Dolphins Line: -9 O/U: 47.5
Don’t think about it. Just keep betting against the Jets. A new low of mediocrity hasn’t been seen since the 0-16 Browns.
Miami 42, Jets 3
Sunday Night Football
LA Rams at San Francisco 49ers Line: Rams -3.5 O/U: 51
What in the blue hell happened to San Fran? Ouch. To allow the dirty bearded Fitzpatrick to completely go leprechaun on the once vaunted defense is a disgrace to all 49ers who traveled west searching for gold. Meanwhile the Rams are clicking after waking up in the second half of the Bills loss. -3.5 seems to good to be true but I’m taking it.
Rams 38, 49ers 18
Monday Night, October 19 5 pm ET
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Line: Chiefs -3.5 O/U: 57.5
I can’t bet this fast enough. The Chiefs are pissed off and are going to sacrifice a Bison to the Football Gods. This won’t be pretty. Mahomes is going to go crazy. Mark it down.
Chiefs 45, Bills 20
Monday, October 19th, 8:15 ET
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
Poor Dak. Dude was on pace for a hell of a season but it would have ultimately led to winning a crap division in and a first round playoff exit so it’s probably for the best that he checked out early. Godspeed fine sir. Now what to make of this game. Kyler has some serious limitations that a good QB coach could fix and take him to the next level. I’m not sure Ryan Gosling is that coach, however. Arizona should still win this game against a Dallas D that a pee wee team could score 20 on.
Arizona 34, Dallas 24
Lock of the week: Chiefs -3.5 beatdown of the Bison
Upset of the week: Browns +3.5
Parlay of the week Chiefs, Rams
Teaser of the week: +6 points Titans, Colts, Ravens, Browns, Packers, Dolphins
Last Week’s Record: ATS: 7-6 SU: 8-5
Overall Record: ATS: 36-39-1 SU: 46-29-1