Analysis

AFC Championship: Chiefs versus Bills stat and score predictions

Here are my stats and score predictions for this Sunday’s AFC Championship game versus the Buffalo Bills:

The Chiefs have clinched their third-straight AFC Championship game on home field for the first time in AFC history. They faced the Patriots and the Titans in their two championship games; now, they’ll face the Buffalo Bills, who are riding on an absolute hot streak. They have to face the likes of MVP candidate Josh Allen, receiving yards leader and receptions leader Stefon Diggs, a top corner in Tre’Davious White, and many other players who have shown out this season for them.

Even though the Chiefs defeated them in their last bout 26-17, this Bills’ team is on an entirely different level than last time. It will be a tough fight for the entire Chiefs’ players and coaching staff, but with Mahomes now cleared to play, it’ll be an exciting game that’ll have fans from all over the league raving about. Now, let’s predict some stats from the Chiefs’ and a score prediction:

Travis Kelce will have 85+ receiving yards

For those who don’t already know, Kelce has shown out in the regular season with over 1,400 receiving yards, over 100 receptions, and 11 touchdowns; he also showed out last week against the Browns with 109 receiving yards on eight catches for a touchdown. Plus, he’s had ten 85+ yard games this season (including the divisional round), so the odds are on his side. He’s on a different level than all other ends in this league are on this season, and it won’t be a surprise if he’s able to achieve this.

In his last bout versus the Bills, he had 65 yards receiving on five catches for two touchdowns. While the yards don’t seem like much, he accounted for about 29% of Mahomes’ passing yards. It would’ve been a lot more if the Chiefs’ didn’t run as much as they did, but they did due to Helaire having a career day of 161 rushing yards on 26 attempts.

Darrell Williams runs over the Bills’ defense for 75+ yards (if he plays)

As I’m writing this, Edwards-Helaire is still questionable and with Bell missing practice Thursday and Friday, it seems as though Williams will get the start as the lead back. Williams impressed last week with 13 rushes for 78 yards on a six yards per run average. He will impress yet again on Sunday.

To limit how many times the 500 million dollar man gets tackled, they’ll be relying on the run a lot this week; they did this last time they faced off, and look at the breakout game Helaire had. Also in that game, all Chiefs’ running backs had averaged over four yards per rush, so the Bills’ run defense isn’t that menacing.

Williams has averaged over four yards per rush this year, so if he takes a bulk of carries as Helaire did in Week 6, he’ll easily surpass the 75-yard marker. While this is a bit of a longshot, I can definitely see it happening if both Helaire and Bell are absent for this game, or if Helaire and/or Bell are limited in snaps.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire will have another 100+ yard game against the Bills (if he plays)

As I’m writing this article, we don’t know if he’s playing; but, if he does receive the start on Sunday, he’ll clutch another 100+ yard performance. This prediction comes from his past battle with the Bills’ defense, where he steamrolled 161 yards on them and his overall skill set as an RB. As displayed throughout the season and specifically against the Bills, he can shed tacklers with absolute ease and can tear through poor defenses at his leisure.

Buffalo has the 20th ranked rush defense in terms of yards per game with 123.7 yards; the last three games have averaged about 127 yards per game. They also allow the 25th most rushing yards per attempt (4.7 yards), so it could be yet another field day for Helaire if he plays.

Patrick Mahomes will throw for over 300+ yards and have three touchdowns

Mahomes is eager to step onto that field and lead the Chiefs to their second-straight AFC Championship, and he’ll have an exemplary game. Buffalo has the 14th ranked pass defense as of right now, and even though they held Mahomes to 225 yards last time they faced off, Mahomes is eager to rain down fire upon the enemy secondary.

Hill is healthy, Kelce is ready to pop off another100+ yard game to continue a godlike year, Watkins has a shot to play in this week’s matchup, and there are many other weapons at his disposal.

With nine 300+ yard games in the regular season, plus a 255-yard game before he was injured gives the assumption that he can do this. The Bills’ have also allowed around 294 passing yards in the past three games. If they run the ball as much as they did last time, fans probably won’t see these stats, but hey, you never know, right?

Bold prediction: The Chiefs’ defense will pick of Josh Allen twice

Allen has thrown two two-int games in the past (Week 5 versus the Titans and Week 10 versus the Cardinals), which turned into losses in both bouts. The Chiefs’ pass defense itself is one of the better ones in the league (8th most incompletions forced, 6th lowest completion percentage, and 8th lowest allowed passer percentage), so they have the ability to do so. Who do I think will pick him off? I’ll put my money on Sneed and Mathieu

Score prediction: Chiefs 31 – Bills 27

It will be a tight game for sure and it’ll probably come down to the final drive of the game where the Chiefs’ defense makes a dramatic stop to send the Chiefs to the Super Bowl! It’ll be fun to watch, and I’m excited for Sunday night.

What are your predictions for the AFC Championship? Leave a comment down below to join the discussion. Thanks for reading, and have a fantastic day.

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